Arizona’s top water officials spoke to the manufacturing community Wednesday about what鈥檚 being done to protect the state鈥檚 water supplies for future growth in this new era of climate change. 

In fact, there is the potential for the state to experience its first-ever water shortage next year, they said. A 20-year drought with no end in sight is shrinking the Southwest鈥檚 most important water resource, the mighty Colorado River. 

For now, there鈥檚 enough water to support the state鈥檚 blooming industry base, said Tom Buschatzke, the director of the Arizona Department of Water Resources (ADWR), and Ted Cooke, general manager of the Central Arizona Project (CAP), during a virtual 鈥渂reakfast鈥� meeting of the (AMC), the voice of the manufacturing sector. 

Proactive conservation efforts over the past seven years including a seven-state-plus-Mexico drought plan to conserve and share resources have resulted in an extra 40 feet of water in Lake Mead, the 鈥渟torage tank鈥� for Colorado River supplies, they said. 

鈥淚n the near term, our residents can be assured that their water supplies are more reliable and secure and the economies and the state supported by this Colorado River can thrive and are more secure,鈥� Bushatzke said.

Potential for state鈥檚 first-ever shortage in 2022 

That doesn鈥檛 mean big challenges don鈥檛 lie ahead. But they are nothing new for Arizona, which uses less water today than it did in the 1950s because of new technologies and methods that 鈥済et more use out of every drop,鈥� Buschatzke said. 

As the Colorado diminishes, Arizona must invest in new technology and innovation and find new resources for water other than the river, they said. 

Next year, Arizona is anticipating its first-ever shortage declaration on the Colorado River. The shortage will result in a substantial cut to Arizona鈥檚 share of the river, with reductions falling largely to central Arizona agricultural users.

Currently, the river is operating in a 鈥淭ier Zero鈥� status, requiring the state to contribute 192,000 acre-feet of Arizona鈥檚 2.8 million acre-foot annual entitlement to Lake Mead. This contribution is coming entirely from the CAP system. 

Based on the current hydrology, it is likely that the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation will elevate the shortage level to a 鈥淭ier 1鈥� in 2022. This would require Arizona to reduce uses by a total of 512,000 acre-feet, again, borne almost entirely by the CAP system. 

Cities and tribes, which are considered 鈥渉igh priority鈥� users when it comes to Colorado River water, will not be affected by the cuts during a Tier 1 shortage. If the state dips into the next lower level, 鈥淭ier 2,鈥� cuts to water allocations would be more widespread among users in order to leave water in Lake Mead. 

River will continue to be resource for generations to come 

While there are 鈥渂ig challenges鈥� ahead and less water coming to Arizona from the Colorado River, it will continue to be a vital source of water for generations to come, said Cooke, of the CAP, which delivers Colorado River water to the populous desert regions in the center of the state including the the Sun Corridor mega region that stretches from metro Phoenix to metro Tucson.

Clock ticking on new drought plan for 2026

With the updated DCP doing its job, Buschatzke and Cooke are once again embarking on the years-long process to renegotiate a new DCP in 2026. They will be working with not only stakeholders within Arizona, but officials in Mexico and the six other Colorado Basin states: California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming. 

As they did in 2019, Buschatzke and Cooke are leading a statewide committee, the new , to negotiate the new plan. The committee is nearly a carbon copy of the previous 40-member DCP committee. include municipal and other water officials, tribes, agricultural groups, homebuilder associations, lawmakers, and the Governor鈥檚 Office. 

Augmentation council working to find new water supplies

Another committee,the , is charged with finding new water resources beyond the Colorado River and targeting conservation projects.  

鈥淭here鈥檚 no silver bullet鈥� but manufacturers can feel confident that Arizona is well prepared for the coming years, Cooke said. 

鈥淭he important thing to remember is, we have a plan. It鈥檚 called the Drought Contingency Plan. Lots of people were involved to make this work and while this plan is being implemented, we鈥檙e working on the next plan,鈥� he said. 

Follow what鈥檚 happening with drought on new website  

All of the basin states are struggling with drought. Arizona has seen some level of drought at least since 2002. Last year was the calendar year on record for the state and the driest since 1956. 

To better serve stakeholders, decision makers and the public, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration鈥檚 National Integrated Drought Information System recently launched a major redesign of . 

This one-stop resource has several features including:

• Drought conditions down to the and level, including current conditions, key indicators of drought, outlooks and forecasts, water supply impacts, historical drought conditions, and more. You can also access curated lists of drought early warning resources for and the entire .
• Historical data and maps, including an where viewers can compare three historical drought datasets side by side down to the county level: U.S. Drought Monitor data going back to 2000, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) data going back to 1895, and paleoclimate data from tree-ring analysis going back to the year 0 for some regions of the U.S.

By Sector section, which shows drought impacts on different economic sectors, such as agriculture, energy, water utilities, and tourism and recreation.

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Drought is not something that is uncommon in the Southwest United States. However, Arizona has stood out in taking active measures to improve the use of the state’s water resources.

One of the largest supplies of water that the state has access to is groundwater, which makes up. The second largest source is the Colorado River, which makes up 36% of the water supply. With the largest amount of water supply for the state coming from groundwater, it makes it a vital resource for the state. By and large most of the water used within Arizona is by the agricultural sector, which accounts for 73%, followed by municipal use at 21%, and the industrial sector rounds it out at 5%.

Groundwater is composed of the water resources beneath the surface of the earth. It is found in natural reservoirs, or aquifers. The sediments in aquifers are filled with different amounts of water, which means some areas can contain more water than others. If there are mass amounts of water being pumped out of aquifers, it can cause damage to the land. Additionally, there can be runoff in shallow groundwater and heavy metals in deeper groundwater.

Early water management

In 1980, Arizona passed the, which protects the users of groundwater and works to decrease the reliance on groundwater statewide, with a focus on heavily populated areas.  

Another program in Arizona working towards water conservation turned 35 years old this year: the Central Arizona Project. This diversion canal is a 336-mile diversion system that brings water from the Colorado River to central and southern Arizona. Since its implementation, the CAP has come to provide the state鈥檚 and serves a total of 80% of the state鈥檚 population. 

There has been a slew of proposed reforms recently by both Democrats and Republicans in the state Legislature regarding the use of groundwater and its potential overuse in unregulated rural areas. 

Both House Bills 2895 and 2896, two bills introduced during the 2020 state legislative session that were introduced in an attempt to regulate the usage of groundwater, failed to pass in the pandemic-shortened legislative session.   

Today鈥檚 approach to drought

With a history of drought, the state has also attempted to craft assurances that its citizens will not be endangered by a lack of water. 

Arizona in 2019 adopted the (DCP), a multi-state effort with Mexico to keep Lake Mead from falling to drastically low levels. The DCP means collaborative action in order to protect the sustainability of the Colorado River as a water resource for the 40 million people who depend on it. 

The creation of the DCP when representatives of the seven Colorado River Basin states signed the Colorado River Compact ensuring that the river would flow to all the states in the Basin and Mexico. 

In 1956, the Colorado River Storage Project Act was signed into law for the construction and regulation of reservoirs in the Upper Basin states. Since the passage of the Storage Project Act there have been many subsequent bills passed to add additional efforts to the storage project plan. However, in 2018 Bureau of Reclamation Commissioner Brenda Burman gave the lower basin states a deadline of January 31, 2019 to create the DCP. 

The DCP that was created has many moving parts, which made it longer to compromise for creating an agreement.

Tom Buschatzke, director of the Arizona Department of Water Resources, said about conservation efforts, 鈥淚t is not easy to achieve that outcome while respecting the unique rights of each State, various Tribes and Mexico to Colorado River water.鈥� 

After months of negotiations, the seven different states finally agreed on a plan to cut back the usage of the Colorado River without lasting impacts to any one state.

In January 2019, Governor Doug Ducey signed an executive order creating the which has worked to further the purpose of ensuring a long-term sustainable water supply for Arizona.

Arizona鈥檚 water management programs and long-term planning have made it possible for there to be of water stored underground to be used in the future if the need ever arises. This amount is the equivalent of water services for the city of Phoenix for 30 years at the current rate. 

Gov. Doug Ducey earlier this year said that the issue of water conservation should be planned for the long term.

鈥淲e don鈥檛 want to deal with this one generation at a time,鈥� the governor said. 鈥淚t should be focused, strategic and ongoing in terms of water innovation.鈥�

U.S. Senator Kyrsten Sinema, D-Ariz., has echoed this sentiment saying, 鈥淎rizona鈥檚 future depends on securing our water supply. Our legislation ensures Arizona has the resources to address drought conditions and restore our waterways so we can continue expanding opportunities across our state.鈥�

State business leaders have talked about the issue of the state鈥檚 conservation efforts being the key to continuing economic success. 

Todd Reeve, director of Business for Water Stewardship, recently spoke on the topic, saying, 鈥淲e want to be in Arizona forever to invest in communities and jobs and we need to have certainty around water in the long term.鈥�

Taylor Hersch is an undergraduate at Arizona State University and an Arizona 番茄社区 Foundation Junior Fellow.

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